[EN] CA 14 – July/Aug 2007

Summary

– DOMESTIC POLITICS –

The Democratic Debate, No Longer Silenced (Michal Meidan)

Towards a « Guided » Public Opinion in China (Michal Meidan)

Reshuffles at the Top Ahead of the 17th Party Congress (Michal Meidan)

Townships: the « Mother in Law » No One Can Get Rid of (Thibaud Voïta)

– ECONOMY –

Social Security and Pension Plans: the States Stays in Control (Thibaud Voïta)

How Can Chinese Bdrands Go Global? (Thibaud Voïta)

– FOREIGN POLICY AND STRATEGIC AFFAIRS –

Against the Peaceful Change in the Military (Mathieu Duchâtel)

The Pentagone’s Annual Report: A Debate on Intentions and Means (Michaïl Andreï)

Provocative Putin (Michal Meidan)

– FROM AND ABOUT TAIWAN –

Is there any possible flexibility in the policy of suppressing Taiwan’s international space? (Mathieu Duchâtel)

The Japanese – Australian Joint Declaration: Good News for Taiwan? (Hubert Kilian)

Introduction

This autumn issue of China Analysis comes one month before the opening of the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. This event is however ritualized and fades in comparison with the whirlwind of the Chinese economy which is experiencing an annual growth rate of over 11% and will undoubtedly leave China with a trade surplus of more than $300 billion in 2007. Nonetheless, it is giving rise not only to speculation but also, through positions taken, sheds light on the debates and the issues of concern to the Chinese leadership. It is fascinating to see how every hesitation points to a reminder that the final decision is in the hands of Hu Jintao. Thus, the man who restored the principle of collective leadership, and who set up, nominally at least, a system of transparency is more than ever the yibashou, or Number One, and a veritable black box when it comes to assessing Chinese intentions.

François Godement and Michal Meidan

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